Portland Enters Recession Amid Persistent Challenges

In a recent statement, economist Mike Wilkerson has warned that Portland, Oregon has fallen into a recession due to a combination of persistent job losses, stagnant population growth, and anemic housing construction. This development comes as no surprise to many, given the city's struggles with affordability, gentrification, and economic diversification.

The State of Portland's Economy

Portland's economy has been facing significant challenges in recent years. The city's persistent job losses can be attributed to various factors, including:

• Aging workforce: Many long-time residents have retired or moved out of the state, leading to a decline in the city's labor force.
• Lack of affordable housing: The shortage of affordable housing options has driven up costs and priced many workers out of the market.
• Increased cost of living: Portland's rising cost of living has made it difficult for low- and middle-income households to afford basic necessities, let alone save money.

Stagnant Population Growth

Portland's population growth has been stagnant in recent years, which is a concern for local businesses and economic development. According to the United States Census Bureau, Portland's population grew by only 1.3% between 2020 and 2021, which is below the national average.

The slow population growth can be attributed to various factors, including:

• Affordability: Many young people are choosing not to move to Portland due to its high cost of living.
• Competition from surrounding cities: Cities like Seattle and Vancouver are offering more competitive salaries and lower costs of living, luring workers away from Portland.

Anemic Housing Construction

The lack of new housing construction in Portland has contributed to the city's affordability crisis. According to data from the Greater Portland Development Corporation, the number of single-family home starts in Multnomah County decreased by 22% between 2020 and 2021.

The shortage of affordable housing options is exacerbating the problem, with many families forced to spend over half of their income on rent. This has led to a decline in homeownership rates, particularly among low- and middle-income households.

Consequences of the Recession

The recession has significant consequences for Portland's economy, including:

• Reduced economic activity: A decline in economic activity can lead to reduced consumer spending, decreased business investment, and lower tax revenues.
• Increased poverty rates: The recession is likely to exacerbate existing poverty rates, as families struggle to make ends meet.

Conclusion

Portland's recession is a result of a combination of persistent job losses, stagnant population growth, and anemic housing construction. These challenges have significant consequences for the city's economy, including reduced economic activity and increased poverty rates. To address these issues, policymakers must prioritize affordable housing options, economic diversification, and workforce development.

Recommendations

To mitigate the effects of the recession, policymakers should consider the following recommendations:

• Increase funding for affordable housing: Providing more funding for affordable housing projects can help address the shortage of affordable options.
• Promote economic diversification: Encouraging businesses to locate in Portland and providing support for start-ups and small businesses can help create new jobs and stimulate economic growth.
• Invest in workforce development: Investing in education and training programs can help workers develop the skills needed to compete in a rapidly changing economy.

By prioritizing affordable housing, economic diversification, and workforce development, policymakers can help mitigate the effects of Portland's recession and create a more sustainable economic future for all residents.